Theory of population

This theory was developed by Thomas Robert Malthus, a British economist in the 18th century. In his essay principle of population as it affects the future improvement in society 1798. Malthus examined the relationship between population increase and increase in food production.

The main features of this theory are

1. Population increases according to geometric progression i.e. 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, whereas the population
2. Population of a country increases at a higher rate as compared to the increase in production of foodstuffs.
3. If the artificial methods are not adopted to control the population of a country, then it becomes double in 25 years' time.
4. If the artificial methods are not adopted to control the population, then nature will take the revenge and natural calamities like wars, floods, earthquakes will decrease the population

Assumptions of the theory

1. Land is fixed i.e. the land size neither increase nor decrease.
2. The law of diminishing returns operates.
3. The level of technology is constant.
4. He also assumed that there is no trade among countries.

Based on the above assumptions, foods supply will always increase much slower as compared to increase in the population size and therefore there will be a point beyond which the population size will be too much to be fed by the available food and he referred to this point, the population trap. Beyond this point there is likely to be starvation, famine, death and so on.

Criticism of the theory

1. The area Malthus studied was very small to establish a theory which could be used worldwide.
2. Malthus did not consider technique progress which can result into increase in food production by applying better farming methods.
3. He ignored the role of international trade which can help to import more food in order to cover the shortage.
4. Malthus only looked at people as just consumers without putting into consideration that a high population size will result into more labor supply and hence increase in food supply.
5. Malthus looked at shortage of food as a result of high population growth rate ignoring other factors such as drought that contributes a lot to food shortage.
6. Malthus also failed to consider the role of transport & communication which allows food to be transported from areas of surplus to area of shortage.

Despite all the above criticism the Malthusian Population Theory is of great application to many LDC's especially in Africa on the following ground:

1. In many LDC's the population growth rate are very high due to high birth rates but when their food supplies are very low which has resulted into occurrence of starvation.
2. In some countries which are overpopulated occurrence of natural calamities such as diseases, floods, earth quakes have reduced the population size.
3. It is also true that land has fixed supply which is very big limitation in increasing food supply. It is also true that in many LDC's availability of food has contributed a lot toward increase in birth rate especially in rural areas.

After modern economists rejected the Malthusian population theory. Optimum population theory was established. It was stated that the population of a country must be optimum. Optimum population is that level of population which is most desirable in view of the natural resources of the country. Optimum population is a relative term, and it can be determined according to the resources available in the country. The optimum population theory is more realistic and nearer to reality. This fact makes the Malthusian theory as incompatible these days.

Although, the Malthusian theory has been proved correct in some cases but still it is not a comprehensive or reliable theory. The invention of new techniques of production and the development of atomic energy has made it possible to increase the population at a greater speed. The present population trends are not very encouraging, but the steps can be taken which can control the population level and increase the production of different commodities to great extent. Different countries have been very successful to solve this problem to great extent.

1. Malthus focused his attention on food production, whereas the modern theory takes in to consideration economic development in all aspects
2. Malthusian seemed to be thinking of a maximum number for a country which if exceeded about spell misery. According to optimum theory there is no right fixed maximum.
3. To Malthus famine, war and diseases were indices of overpopulation. But the optimum theory tells us that in the absence of such phenomena there can be over population. It can be shown when per capital income has gone down.
4. Modern theory is optimistic where the Malthusian theory is pessimistic in outlook. Malthus was haunted by the fear that population would outstrip food supply and spell misery.